It’s that time of the year. Sports analysts get very little sleep and little to no work is done throughout the country. Millions of fans are filling out their NCAA brackets. Everyone has a different strategy for how they pick who they believe will win the National Championship. Some people look deeply into the team’s stats or the draw that they received, while others simply pick out of luck or by what uniforms they prefer. Over the next three weeks I am going to give everyone a glimpse into my mind of who I believe will be cutting down the nets in New Orleans on April 2.
With the first three rounds taking place in locations all around the country this week, I will take it week-by-week with my predictions. The first round will begin tonight with the “First Four” in Dayton, Ohio. Does it really matter who wins the Western Kentucky vs. Mississippi Valley State game tonight? I don’t think so. The winner will be rewarded with overall No. 1 seed Kentucky, which will more than likely pull out a 30-point victory. The second game of the night will be between BYU and Iona. The x-factor in this game will be Lamont “MoMo” Jones. Jones is a transfer from Arizona where he was the second leading scorer on the tem last year, and knows what it is like to make a deep tournament run. Jones helped Arizona make it to the Elite 8 in last year’s tournament before falling to then eventual National Champion, Connecticut Huskies. Iona will squeak by BYU, earning themselves a date with No. 3 seed Marquette.
The second round will begin on Thursday, which will have a full slate of games.
South Region: Known as the “toughest region” in the tournament, I don’t expect this region to disappoint. With the likes of Kentucky, Duke, Baylor, Indiana and defending national champion UCONN, I expect to see some buzzer-beating finishes in this region. As I mentioned before, I believe Kentucky will get through their second round game without breaking a sweat. The Wildcats will await the winner of No. 8 Iowa State vs. No. 9 UCONN. Can you see Connecticut losing in their first game? I can’t. After witnessing the run they endured last season, they will find it in themselves to get past Iowa State. I understand that they don’t have Kemba Walker to rely on in pressure moments, but the majority of their championship team has returned, including Jeremy Lamb. Lamb has become the new leader of this team and will rely on their experience to advance. I don’t see the Huskies title defense going any more than the second round. They received a tough draw, having to face Kentucky in the third round, which are too talented for this Huskies squad. No shock there, I have Kentucky reaching the Sweet 16. Moving along in the South Region, last year’s Cinderella, VCU, will face one of their mid-major foes, Wichita State, in the second round. Any other year I would pick these teams to win their first game, so having them face each other in the second round is a tough matchup. VCU lost key players in their Final Four run last year, but one key element they didn’t lose is Head Coach Shaka Smart. Smart proved he is one of the up and coming coaches in the country last year. Bradford Burgess was a contributing factor in the run last year and I expect him to be the same this year, as I am picking the No. 12seed to reach the Sweet 16 with their win over Wichita State, and then over No. 4 seed Indiana, who will be missing starting point guard Verdell Jones due to injury. I don’t see No. 6 UNLV and No. 3 Baylor getting upset in their first game, setting up an interesting third round matchup. UNLV has got little recognition this year in the Mountain West, and has a good chance to make a run in the tournament, but not in my bracket. I have seen Baylor play throughout the year and believe they are one of the better overall teams. I expect a breakout tournament for Perry Jones III, leading the Bears to a Sweet 16 birth. At the bottom of the South Region stands No. 2 Duke. Duke will be able to breeze through their first game against Lehigh University. Who will they face? I am taking a slight upset in No. 10 Xavier defeating No. 7 Notre Dame. At the beginning of the year, Xavier was one of the elite teams before their infamous brawl with Cincinnati. Tu Holloway is one of the best in the nation when he is on his game, and will be able to lead the Musketeers by the Fighting Irish. I don’t see them being able to matchup with the size of Duke, giving the Blue Devils a trip to the Sweet 16.
West Region: Michigan State received the No. 1 seed in the West Region, fresh off their Big Ten tournament win on Sunday against Ohio State. I have them advancing to the Sweet 16, beating No. 16 Long Island-Brooklyn and No. 8 Memphis in the third round. Memphis, who was ranked in the top ten earlier in the year, could easily upset the Spartans, but I don’t see it happening. Even with the No. 1 seed, the Spartans have been flying under-the-radar and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder. My Cinderella pick in this region is Long Beach State. They have faced tough opponents all year in the likes of Kansas, North Carolina, Pittsburgh and Kansas State, which will have prepared them for pressure moments in the tournament. I have them advancing to the Sweet 16, beating No. 5 New Mexico and No. 4 Louisville in their first two rounds. The team that got the worst drawing was the Murray State Racers. Murray State had one loss the entire season, and ended up as a No. 6 seed. Even though I have them winning their opening matchup, I don’t see them having enough firepower to run down the court with No. 3 Marquette. Marquette will make another run to the Sweet 16. In the last matchups of the West Region, the Florida Gators will use their experience from Earvin Walker and Kenny Boynton to get passed No. 10 Virginia, setting them up with a matchup with No. 2 Missouri. Missouri has proven to be one of the best offensive teams in the nation and will go far in the tournament. I have them as the eventual National Champions, but don’t want to get ahead of myself. They will be too much to handle for the Gators, advancing to the Sweet 16.
East Region: Syracuse will be close to home, earning the No. 1 seed in the East Region. Playing their first two games in Pittsburgh, I don’t see them having any trouble reaching the Sweet 16, defeating No. 16 UNC-Ashville and No. 8 Kansas State. The Syracuse 2-3 zone will force Kansas State into some bad shots, not a good combination for a team that is not a good shooting team in the first place. I don’t expect No. 4 Wisconsin or No. 5 Vanderbilt to get upset in the second round, setting up an intriguing matchup. Vanderbilt is riding a wave of momentum right now, fresh off their SEC Tournament win over Kentucky, and will continue that momentum over the Badgers, advancing to the Sweet 16. No.6 Cincinnati will face a tough opponent in their opening game in Texas. Texas has one of the elite scorers in the nation with J’Covan Brown, but not much else. Cincy had a great run to the Big East Championship, and will use what worked to beat top-seeded Syracuse to upend Texas. It won’t be enough to reach the Sweet 16, as I have them falling to ACC Tournament Champion Florida State in the third round. With another subtle upset, I have No. 10 West Virginia defeating No. 7 Gonzaga for no other reason than home court advantage. With the game being played in Pittsburgh, the Mountaineers will get a heavy-dose of West Virginia fans to the game, making it more like a home game. The crowd will not help them with an opponent like Ohio State in the third round. Plain and simple, the Buckeyes are more talented and will cruise on to the Sweet 16.
Midwest Region: The last region sees the Tar Heels of North Carolina as the No. 1 seed. UNC will make it 4-4 on No. 1 seeds for me making it to the Sweet 16, easily disposing of their first round matchup and Alabama in the third round. In tomorrow nights “First Four” game between California and South Florida, I haven’t even selected on who I want to win that matchup, but ironically enough I have either one of them defeating Temple in the second round. Their run will end their after No. 4 Michigan will make their second consecutive trip to the Sweet 16. After nudging their way into the 68-team field, NC State will continue their magic run for one more game. I have them upsetting No. 6 San Diego State, who is a much different team than last year’s. NC State’s luck will run out against No. 3 Georgetown, who will make a run to the Sweet 16. Finishing off my bracket for the first three rounds includes the Kansas Jayhawks easily making their way into the Sweet 16, defeating No. 15 Detroit and then No. 7 Saint Mary’s in the third round.
There you have it. My predictions for the first three rounds are in the books. How does it match up with yours? Check in next week to see how I did, and for my picks in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.
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