It took a while, but college football will finally have a national champion as a result of a playoff format.
No. 3 Oregon will face off against No. 5 Ohio State in a matchup of two high-profile programs. Both teams rank in the top three of Football Outsiders’ F/+ ranking, which is a combination of the Fremeau Efficiency Index and the S&P+ Ratings. They also rank in the top three of ESPN’s Football Power Index, which is another measure of team strength. Both offenses are in the top five for points scored per game.
Oregon’s Marcus Mariota was the run-away favorite in the Heisman Trophy voting, receiving 788 first-place votes — 751 more than Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon who finished in second place. Mariota completed 68.6 percent of his passes for 4,121 yards and threw 40 touchdown passes but just three interceptions. He ran for another 731 yards and 15 touchdowns.
J.T. Barrett from Ohio State filled in nicely after the buckeyes lost starting quarterback lost Braxton Miller, the two-time Big Ten player of the year, during the preseason. Barrett threw for 2,834 yards and 34 touchdowns, and added another 11 scores on the ground. However, he got hurt and now Cardale Jones will be under center for the Buckeyes.
Jones will be making just his third career start but did lead the team to victories over Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game and Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.
“They are the same but different,” Michigan State Coach Mark Dantonio said of the two offenses. “They both create run-pass conflicts. I think they both have coaches that are on the cutting edge of what we see now as offensive football. I think both coaches always come with something a little bit different that you may not see as a fan, but as a coach you tend to see those little differences after you’ve studied them. So I think they’ll both bring something a little bit new, both difficult to prepare for.”
When Oregon has the ball
The Ducks’ up tempo offense, which “runs plays as fast as hummingbirds flap their wings,” will be on display and, as mentioned above, revolves around Mariota. His protection comes in the form of the No. 1 offensive line in the country in terms of adjusted line yards, a proxy for how many yards the line is responsible for.
However, the Ducks’ offensive line has yielded 29 sacks this season and will need to neutralize Joey Bosa, who was credited with 14 sacks this season.
A big key for Oregon is having left tackle Jake Fisher in the lineup.
Without Fisher, the Ducks averaged 158 yards per game on the ground, scored zero rushing touchdowns and gave up 12 sacks in two games. In the 12 games with Fisher, the Ducks have averaged 255.8 yards per game on the ground, scored 3.5 touchdowns per game on the ground and have only allowed 17 sacks.
One area of concern for the Ducks offense is they may be without wide receiver Devon Allen, who suffered a right knee injury against Florida State and is expected to miss the national title game.
When Ohio State has the ball
Oregon’s biggest strength on defense is forcing turnovers — they rank No.1 in total turnover margin – but they allow 156.1 yards per game on the ground. That’s where Ohio State sophomore running back Ezekiel Elliott can gain some big yards.
Elliott rushed for 1,632 yards on 237 carries (6.9 yards per carry) and scored 14 touchdowns. In the two games against Wisconsin and Alabama he had 40 carries for 450 rushing yards and four touchdowns.
And Oregon has struggled stuffing the run at or before the line of scrimmage.
Keep your eyes on Jones, as well. He may be the third-string quarterback but he does a good job of maximing the Buckeye’s receiving corp.
“You see Cardale, and he’s built to be a professional quarterback,” Ohio State defensive tackle Michael Bennett said. “He makes great decisions, he can run the ball when he needs to, and he’s got a cannon for an arm — and it’s getting more and more accurate every day. He’s also got a lot of poise and leadership qualities, so when he goes in there, you’re not worried. You’re just ready for him to score a touchdown.”
